Scio briefing on chinas economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

Scio briefing on chinas economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

We have noticed that, in March, private investment reached 5. Does the overall momentum of the private investment suggest a rebound now?

Besides, private investment reflects the real economy. So, is the real economy getting better, too? Thank you. Thanks for your questions. One is about the trend of the private investment and the other refers to the growth of the real economy. Private investment in the first quarter of the year did indeed grow one percentage point, and was faster than the growth in the first two months of this year, reaching 7. The manufacturing investment in the first quarter of the year grew 5.

We pay close attention to private investment and investment in the manufacturing sector, because the latter mainly involves private enterprises and thus is a more accurate reflection of the market's growth momentum and dynamics. Since last September, both manufacturing investment and private investment have been rebounding. Last year, private investment was at a low level with a rapid decrease. The State Council undertook studies, issued documents and dispatched supervisory groups to local governments to check the reasons for this.

Since then, private investment has been given high attention by local governments. It has been on the rise from the last September to the present. Viewed from the current circumstances, the rebound has a certain basis, and here are the reasons:. First, the supply-demand relationship has improved and the market has become more vigorous, creating a better atmosphere for the investment and growth of private enterprises.

SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

Second, current policy support in various respects, including reforms for "streamlining administration and supervision and service efficiency", market access and accelerating PPP-based projects, have allowed more space for private enterprises, which will help the growth of the private investment.

Thus, private investment can still maintain its rebound in the next phase. As for the real economy you mentioned, revival of the real economy is one of this year's four key tasks in deepening supply-side structural reform.

The real economy includes the manufacturing sector and the service sector. Given the current overall economic growth trend, the real economy has shown signs of rebound. Next, with more policy supports, more resources and funds will be pulled away from the virtual economy to benefit the real one. The real economy is well positioned to achieve better development.

Adjust font size:. China National Radio: We have noticed that, in March, private investment reached 5. Mao Shengyong: Thanks for your questions. Viewed from the current circumstances, the rebound has a certain basis, and here are the reasons: First, the supply-demand relationship has improved and the market has become more vigorous, creating a better atmosphere for the investment and growth of private enterprises.

Follow China. Print E-mail. Send your stories Get more from China.Gross domestic product GDP fell 6. Providing a silver lining was a much smaller-than-expected decline in factory production in March, suggesting efforts to restart parts of the economy since February are working.

However, analysts say Beijing faces an uphill battle to revive growth as the global spread of virus devastates demand from major trading partners, while domestic consumption also remains under pressure. Domestic demand has not fully recovered as consumption related to social gatherings is still banned while external demand is likely to be hammered as pandemic spreads. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 9. Financial markets did not react significantly to the contraction, which was broadly in line with consensus expectations.

However, weaker domestic consumption, which has been the biggest growth driver, remains a concern, as incomes slow and much of the rest of the world falls into recession. Industrial output fell by a less-than-expected 1. Highlighting the challenges in consumption, however, was a The virus has infected more than 2 million globally and killed more thanChina, where the virus first emerged, has reported more than 3, deaths although new infections have dropped significantly from their peak. Of major concern for policymakers is social stability among its 1.

However, analysts expect nearly 30 million job losses this year due to stuttering work resumptions and plunging global demand, outpacing the plus million layoffs during the financial crisis. Beijing has pledged to take more steps to combat the impact of the pandemic, as mounting job losses threaten social stability. The central bank has already loosened monetary policy to help free up the flow of credit to the economy, but its easing so far has been more measured than during the global financial crisis.

The government will also lean on fiscal stimulus to spur infrastructure investment and consumption, which could push the budget deficit to a record high. The Mafia Is poised to exploit coronavirus, and not just in Italy April 19, And Other Marketing Tips April 19, Load More. Home News U.

China's Q1 GDP fell 6.8% y/y on COVID-19 shutdown

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All fields are required. Log In. Retrieve your password Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.Will the noticeable growth in unemployment rate in February exert a far-reaching impact on Chinese incomes and future consumption?

Thank you! To the first question about the unemployment rate, in February, China's unemployment rate did increase. This was mainly because enterprises' demand for labor obviously decreased due to the impact of the epidemic, resulting in a drop in employment.

However, this situation won't last long. With more enterprises resuming production and operations, demand for labor will grow and employment will increase, causing the overall unemployment rate to drop. It is predictable that the rise in unemployment in January and February will have a negative impact on residents' income growth in the first quarter of this year.

From the second quarter, with production and daily life returning to normal and enterprises creating more jobs, especially when economic recovery reaches robust levels by the second half of the year, the income growth rate is expected to gradually improve.

To the second question about the fiscal deficit, the Chinese government's overall debt level remains relatively low at present. In terms of policies to be taken, we need to further reduce taxes and fees to relieve the burdens on enterprises and help them overcome difficulties in this time of crisis while at the same time implementing a proactive fiscal policy composed of more active, effective measures.

In general, the overall national debt of China remains relatively low. Some assets arising from debts are even profitable. In this sense, we still have plenty of room to appropriately raise our budget deficit ratio.This briefing is no longer updating. Read the latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak here. The announcement ends a streak of untrammeled growth that had survived the Tiananmen Square crackdownthe SARS epidemic and even the global financial crisis.

They also illustrate how monumental the challenge of getting the global economy back on its feet will be. That could lead to factory shutdowns and worker furloughs even as the country tries to get back to business.

That prompted most, though not all, economists to guess that overall economic performance for the first quarter of this year would show a decrease from a year earlier.

The Small Business Administration has run out of money for its Paycheck Protection Program, officials said on Thursday, leaving millions of businesses unable to apply for emergency loans while Congress struggles to reach a deal to replenish the funds. The money has gone quickly, with more than 1. Kim said on Thursday. A Wells Fargo spokeswoman said the bank continued to prepare applications for the funds and would submit them when the funds were available again.

Doug Martin, 63, a sports marketer in Long Beach, Calif. Boeing plans to bring about 27, employees back to work in Washington State to resume aircraft production, the company said on Thursday. Most will come back to work by the end of next week. The announcement is the first attempt at large-scale resumption of business activity by a U.

scio briefing on chinas economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

President Trump is encouraging businesses and states to reopen the economy by May 1 or earlier. This week, the company brought about 2, employees in the state back to work, most of them focused on defense production operations. At least others have recovered after being infected. Boeing employees who return to work in the coming week will find new health and safety precautions in place, such as staggered start times and spread-out work areas, the company said.

April 10 press conference on China's economic performance in Q1

But a company spokesman, Charles Bickers, said Boeing would not test employees for the virus. USAAwhich serves military members and their families, will temporarily change its policies on overdrawn accounts to let customers collect stimulus money after The New York Times reported that it was not allowing those customers to access the funds.

The Times had reported that USAA and some other lenders were applying stimulus funds to overdraft fees and negative balances and only giving overdrawn customers the balance that remained after the accounts were zeroed out. USAA said on Thursday that it would pause overdraft collections for the next 90 days.It used to be said in treasury circles that when the United States sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. But inwhen China suffered a severe viral infection, the planet ended up in intensive care … literally.

Angel Gurria, the secretary-general of the OECD, was just as blunt, warning that the economic tsunami from the Covid catastrophe will swamp the global community. Read: Xi trumps Trump with global charm offensive.

April 19, 2020

Read: How China brought the world to a standstill. Official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for January and February showed industrial production dropped by Retail sales also plunged by The record-breaking fall continued when it came to fixed asset investment, which plummeted by To complete an appalling set of figures, profits at industrial firms during the same period slumped Moreover, that was the lowest level recorded in a decade.

Yet it could be even worse. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, the numerous scenarios resemble scenes from a disaster movie:. Read: China risks a Covid second wave. Exports will also take a massive hit amid shrinking demand as Europe, the United States and the Asia-Pacific region cope with the aftershocks of the Covid pandemic.

The 27 European Union countries are still grappling with the new coronavirus strain and are in different stages of lockdown. For the US, infected cases have soared to more thanOverall, the global total has surged pastwith the death toll spiraling to nearly 34, In the past three months, graphic images of human misery have been plastered across the media as international markets sink into a sea of red.

The only industry experiencing a boom is the production of medical equipment. Essential supplies such as face masks are desperately needed in the rest of the world with Chinese companies cashing in on the pandemic.

And this could be just the beginning. Skip to content. Get Asia Times Daily in your inbox Subscribe.How many percentage points of GDP growth by the end of this year does China need to achieve its targets on economic development and its goal of doubling its GDP? One more question: You just mentioned that China would expand domestic demand while consolidating external demand, but do you think global proliferation of the epidemic will affect China's overall external demand?

Indeed, the economy is facing some headwinds since the year started: On the one hand, the epidemic has left a clear negative impact on the economy in the first quarter, especially January and February, and on the other hand, the external environment is seeing new changes like sharp fluctuations in the financial market and commodity prices, resulting in gloomy predictions that global economic growth may slow.

However, there are some encouraging factors emerging out there: First, the results of epidemic prevention and control in China are going to leave the country stronger. Second, progress has been continuously made in coordinating epidemic control and socioeconomic development and helping enterprises resume production and operations.

Third, after the results of epidemic prevention and control are further consolidated, the endogenous dynamic of the Chinese economy will be constantly unleashed, and economic activities that were temporarily contained will reactivate. In the next stage, if work on epidemic prevention and control proceeds well, China will land on a good foundation for strong economic growth in the rest of the year.

Especially after more robust hedging policies are implemented, the effects will continue emerging in the second half of this year. I am confident that China will maintain stable, healthy economic development this year. To your second question on the epidemic's impact on China's foreign trade: So far, the epidemic has been basically contained in China, but it still maintains momentum of rapid spread outside of China.

Certainly, the pandemic situation will impact China's foreign trade. Under this circumstance, two things are extremely important: First, we must continue advancing epidemic prevention and control instead of just calling it a day. In addition to stepping up epidemic prevention and control domestically, we also need to strengthen international cooperation on prevention and control of the epidemic.

China has gained valuable experience on this very task and should play a more prominent role as a responsible major country. Second, the global economy is facing some difficulties. Those irrational trade rules and barriers should be removed and abolished to enable the world economy to more effectively offset the impact of the epidemic and bring global trade back to normal.

Thank you! In case of any dispute over a discrepancy, the Chinese version is deemed to prevail. Adjust font size:. Hu Kaihong: The press conference is hereby concluded. Thank you, Mr. Thank you all. Follow China. ChinaNews App Download.I have two questions. First, what is your forecast for the first-quarter GDP? Do you expect that being negative? Will that continue to the second quarter considering what is happening globally now, in the U.

My second question is: Do you expect the jobless rate to continue rising? What will the government do to try to bring that down and decrease the unemployment in China?

scio briefing on chinas economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

Thank you. Thank you for your questions. Since statistics for the first two months have already come out, the situation in March will be decisive for quarterly data.

After deployment of coordinated epidemic prevention and control measures coupled with economic and social development policies from China's central leadership, resumption of work and production has been speeding up since mid-to-late February.

scio briefing on chinas economic performance in the first quarter of 2020

We expect a marked improvement in March. This is our prediction. March has taken a larger proportion than either January or February in the economic aggregate. We believe that economic performance in March will be significantly better than that of January and February. This is most likely the case in the first quarter. As for the first-quarter GDP, we must wait until the next month to find out. We will know around the same time in the next month. As for the next step, our preliminary assessment is: Today, the effectiveness of domestic epidemic prevention and control efforts has become increasingly evident.

More importantly, the resumption of work and production is accelerating, and regular production and everyday life are being gradually restored. Domestically, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will decline in the second quarter. By then, some economic activities that have suffered will gradually return to normal.


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